The Defense Potential of the Polish Diaspora and Poles Living Outside the Borders of the Republic of Poland. Research Concept

Cezary Smuniewski

Błażej Bado

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Smuniewski C., Bado B., The Defense Potential of the Polish Diaspora and Poles Living Outside the Borders of the Republic of Poland. Research Concept, “Polish Journal of Political Science”, 2026, Vol. 12, Issue 1, pp. 83–115, DOI: 10.58183/pjps.04012026.

 

ABSTRACT

The aim of this article is to present the methodological and theoretical foundations for examining the defense potential of the Polish diaspora and Polish citizens residing outside the territory of the Republic of Poland. In the context of a radical transformation of the security architecture in Central and Eastern Europe and the emergence of hybrid threats, the authors argue for the need to redefine the perception of the Polish diaspora and Poles living abroad – from a cultural and sentimental perspective toward understanding them as a strategic resource contributing to state resilience. The article introduces an original concept for empirical research on the Polish diaspora and Poles Residing Outside the Republic of Poland, based on methodological triangulation and purposive sampling, encompassing an analysis of their potential across seven countries of the greatest demographic and strategic importance to Poland. Thus, the article provides both a ready-to-use operational research framework and a substantive justification for conducting systematic studies within the problem area under discussion.

Keywords: national security, Polish diaspora, defense potential, state resilience, vernacular security, hybrid threats

 

Introduction

The escalation of geopolitical tensions in Central and Eastern Europe, culminating in the war waged by Russia against Ukraine, compels the stats of this region to undertake a radical redefinition of their national security strategies. In the face of hybrid threats,[1] the traditional reliance of defense systems exclusively on military capabilities and political alliances may fail to provide the desired effectiveness in countering contemporary security challenges. Contemporary security doctrine should therefore require the continuous search for strategic reserves, especially in new areas that have thus far remained on the margins of scholarly reflection within the discipline of security studies. In the context of Poland, such an area may be identified in the Polish diaspora and Poles living outside the borders of the Republic of Poland – a community numbering in the millions and possessing significant competencies as well as substantial material resources.

An analysis of the existing body of scholarship devoted to the Polish diaspora indicates the presence of a substantial literature on the subject; however, it tends to focus on selected and highly specific areas. The dominant research paradigm, developed primarily within sociology, history, and political science, explores issues related to the preservation of national identity, processes of assimilation, the history of labor migration, and the electoral preferences of the Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the borders of the Republic of Poland.[2] The security dimension appears in these studies only incidentally, usually in a historical context (e.g., armed involvement during the First and Second World Wars)[3] or in reference to so-called soft power[4] and public diplomacy.[5] There remains, however, a lack of systematic studies within the field of security studies that would treat the contemporary diaspora as an actor possessing tangible defense potential in the “hard security” sense and as a component of the state’s resilience to hybrid threats.

To ensure the methodological rigor of this study, we adopted a systemic research perspective that conceptualizes national security as a set of interconnected vessels, within which non-state actors (the diaspora) perform a function complementary to state structures.[6] This article was developed through the use of theoretical methods characteristic of security studies and political science. The primary research method applied in constructing this conceptual framework is systems analysis,[7] which served to identify the relationships between the capabilities and resources of the diaspora and the defense needs of the state. In addition, the study employs a review and critical analysis of the literature (to identify the research gap), a comparative method (to relate the Polish case to Ukrainian experience), and heuristic modeling.[8] Together with the use of scholarship on the Polish diaspora and the methodology of security studies, these approaches made it possible to distinguish seven key dimensions of the defense capital[9] of the Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the borders of the Republic of Poland.

The structure of this study is based on a clear distinction between the pursuit of the article’s specific research objective and the presentation of the implications arising from the considerations undertaken, which – according to the authors – may serve as methodological inspiration for research on the Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the borders of the Republic of Poland conducted from the perspective of security studies. The primary objective of this article is to present the methodological and theoretical foundations for examining the defense potential of the Polish diaspora and Poles Residing Outside the Republic of Poland. The article defines the conceptual apparatus relevant to the issue under discussion, justifies the need to address this topic in the current “pre-war” period,[10] and develops both an argumentative and operational framework for decision-makers and institutions that may be interested in conducting research on the defense potential of the Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the borders of the Republic of Poland. We therefore assume that the implications derived from the present analysis have a practical and implementation-oriented dimension, which we formulate as follows: “Examining and determining the defense potential of the Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the borders of the Republic of Poland makes it possible to obtain useful data for strengthening the national security process, thereby reducing uncertainty[11] regarding the reactions and behavior of the Polish diaspora and Poles Residing Outside the Republic of Poland in the event of a threat to the sovereignty of the Republic of Poland.”

From an operational perspective, defense potential is understood as the capacity of the Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the borders of the Republic of Poland to support Poland’s defense efforts through the mobilization of their respective forms of capital: human, political, financial, social, infrastructural, ideological (axiological), and military. The intention behind developing research procedures and methods to facilitate the identification of these forms of capital is to address the diagnosed gap in the scholarly literature and to provide public administration with tools enabling their operational use. In light of contemporary threats and the current geopolitical situation, we argue that conducting the research outlined in this article is in the political interest of the Republic of Poland; accordingly, this study should also be understood as a call for its implementation. The following sections of this study specify the conceptual framework (section 1) and the subject and scope of the research (section 2), justify their strategic necessity (section 3), present the author’s research methodology (section 4), and indicate the expected implications for the state’s defense doctrine (part 5).

 

Conceptual Framework

The precise definition of the conceptual framework, which constitutes the methodological foundation of any research process, is particularly important in projects that explore areas located at the intersection of different academic disciplines. This also applies to the intersection that is central to the research we propose – namely, that between the sociology of migration and security studies. The specific nature of the proposed research requires moving beyond the intuitive understanding of terms commonly used in public discourse and instead adopting their strict operationalization. The conceptual framework of this study has been constructed around four pillars: the subject-related dimension (“the Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the Republic of Poland”), the object-related dimension (“the defense potential of the Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the Republic of Poland”), the theoretical dimension (“the vernacular approach to the study of security”), and the purposive dimension (“state and national resilience in a diasporic context”). Such a structuring of the semantic field makes it possible to precisely capture the role that Polish communities abroad may play within the defense system of the Polish state.

The Polish Diaspora and Poles Residing Outside the Republic of Poland

In sociological and political science analyses, researchers consistently move away from a static and homogeneous perception of the Polish diaspora, instead favoring approaches that emphasize its internal diversity and dynamic character. The scholarly exploration of this issue reveals a clear tendency toward a dichotomous division – also reflected in the conceptual framework of our research design – between “the Polish diaspora” in the traditional sense and “Poles residing outside the Republic of Poland.” Specialists typically reserve the former category for settled, multi-generational communities that cultivate cultural heritage while simultaneously undergoing advanced processes of assimilation in their host countries. The latter category, by contrast, considered through the lens of the transnationalism paradigm,[12] encompasses more recent waves of emigration, characterized by high mobility and the maintenance of active legal and civic ties with the country of origin.[13]

In light of the adopted research assumptions, the notion of “the Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the borders of the Republic of Poland” should be understood as a heterogeneous analytical category. It encompasses diverse groups of individuals functioning outside the territory of the Polish state who differ, among other factors, in their legal status, migration experience, degree and forms of identification with Polishness, as well as their relationship with the state and society of their country of residence. Understood in this way, the category includes both the descendants of historical waves of emigration, permanently embedded in the social structures of host states, and individuals participating in contemporary migration processes, including citizens of the Republic of Poland residing abroad on either a temporary or long-term basis. Adopting such a definition does not presume identity homogeneity or common patterns of social participation among these groups; rather, it serves to organize the analysis by placing diverse forms of presence and activity of persons connected to Poland outside its territory within a common research framework. For research purposes, we therefore approach “the Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the borders of the Republic of Poland” in functional terms, viewing them as a strategic demographic and competency-based reserve possessing diverse social, political, and material capital. From the perspective of security studies that we adopt, the diaspora is thus treated as a collective actor with fluid boundaries, unified not so much by a uniform legal status as by a shared set of experiences and traditions and by a potential willingness to identify with the national interest of the state of origin, manifested in their capacity to undertake actions in support of its defense.

The Defense Potential of the Polish Diaspora and Poles Residing Outside the Republic of Poland

Contemporary reflection on national security redefines the classical understanding of defense potential by shifting the focus from the simple aggregation of military resources toward systemic approaches that take into account state resilience and its capacity to adapt under conditions of hybrid threats. Within this paradigm, resources located outside the territory of the state cease to be treated as peripheral and instead acquire the status of strategic assets that may determine the effectiveness of actions in the informational, diplomatic, or logistical domains. This phenomenon corresponds to the concept of “total” (“universal”) security,[14] in which responsibility for the survival of the state is spread across a wide spectrum of actors, including the national diaspora, which is capable of projecting influence in the international arena.[15]

Within the framework of the research concept we propose, the defense potential of the diaspora is understood as an aggregate of mobilization capacities oriented toward supporting the vital interests of the Republic of Poland. In our approach, this category encompasses the operational readiness to activate seven key dimensions of capital:

1. Human capital (understood as the stock of skills and competencies that can be utilized in support of the security and resilience of the Republic of Poland, e.g., medical professionals or IT specialists).
2. Political capital (understood as the capacity to influence political processes in host countries, resulting, among other factors, from membership in political parties or participation in official representative structures).
3. Financial capital (understood as financial resources and the capacity to generate funds for the purposes of the security and resilience of the Republic of Poland).
4. Social capital (understood as networks of relationships, trust, and norms of cooperation that enable the community to mobilize effectively from the bottom up and to coordinate activities in support of the security of the Republic of Poland).
5. Infrastructural capital (understood as material facilities and institutions that may be employed to build the security and resilience of the Republic of Poland, such as buildings or logistical support infrastructure for refugees).
6. Ideological (axiological) capital (understood as the set of values, beliefs, and symbols that shape a patriotic Polish identity).
7. Military capital[16] (understood as defense potential based on personnel resources and their mobilization capabilities).[17]

Accordingly, we consider the essence of the defense potential defined in this way to lie not in the mere statistical presence of Poles abroad, but above all in their agency – understood as the capacity to convert their existing resources into concrete effects that strengthen the security of the home state and reduce strategic uncertainty in the face of threats to its sovereignty.

The Vernacular Approach to the Study of Security

The methodological specificity of the research we propose, oriented toward exploring the attitudes of non-state actors, implies the need to move beyond the traditional state-centric paradigm of defining threats. At the theoretical level, we therefore draw on the concept of “vernacular security.”[18] This approach, rooted in the tradition of critical security studies,[19] shifts the analytical focus from abstract geopolitical doctrines to the ways in which security is articulated, experienced, and negotiated by ordinary participants in social life.

From an operational perspective, consistent with the proposed research framework, the vernacular approach is defined as the analytical capture of “bottom-up” security narratives, constructed in everyday language and shaped by cultural codes and local experiences specific to a given group. In contrast to institutional discourse – employing the formalized language of treaties and military strategies – the vernacular perspective focuses on how the diaspora “speaks about security” and how it assigns meaning to concepts such as “threat,” “defense,” or “patriotism” in everyday practice. We regard the application of this perspective as essential for the proper interpretation of the mechanisms underlying the mobilization of the Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the borders of the Republic of Poland. We assume that readiness to activate defense potential is not a simple derivative of objective military indicators but rather stems from the subjective perception of reality. This approach makes it possible to reconstruct local “dialects” of security, which differ across communities, for example in Chicago, London, or Vilnius.

State and National Resilience in a Diasporic Context

The concept that integrates the adopted conceptual framework is resilience,[20] which we interpret in holistic terms, combining the state (institutional) and national (societal) dimensions. We move away from a static understanding of endurance in favor of a dynamic definition, in which resilience denotes the capacity of a system to absorb shocks, adapt to changing conditions, and recover following a crisis.[21] From this perspective, the diaspora ceases to be viewed merely as an external reservoir of resources and instead becomes an integral component of national resilience, which, under extreme conditions, determines the survival of state structures.

Accordingly, we assume that the Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the borders of the Republic of Poland constitute a strategic extension of the state’s security system. Such an approach makes it possible to treat “Polishness beyond the borders” as a resource that can contribute to the creation of strategic depth,[22] which – should the decision-making center within the territory of the Republic of Poland become paralyzed – may help sustain the state’s capacity for support across five dimensions: (1) the spatial dimension, through the dispersion of resources and points of activity outside the state’s territory; (2) the temporal dimension, through the maintenance of operational continuity and organizational capacity; (3) the socio-political dimension, through the preservation of the cohesion of the political community and the legitimacy of the state’s narrative; (4) the economic-technological dimension, through access to alternative resources, competencies, and support networks; and (5) the alliance-based dimension, through the strengthening of international relationships and representative capabilities outside domestic structures. Within this framework, strategic depth denotes the capacity of the security system to absorb pressure, adapt, and continue functioning, and its level depends on the quality of governance, the condition of society, the structure of the economy, and the state’s embeddedness in the international environment.

 

What? – Subject and Scope of the Proposed Research

The transition from definitional findings to the operationalization of the research process requires the precise delineation of the cognitive boundaries of the studies whose implementation we propose. Accordingly, in this part of the article we identify the specific object of analysis and define the scope of the research field. Our approach is based on the assumption that a reliable assessment of defense potential in an era of hybrid threats must integrate a theoretical perspective with extensive empirical research.

Subject of the Proposed Research: Multidimensional Defense Potential

As the primary object of research exploration, we identify the category of the defense potential of the Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the borders of the Republic of Poland. From the adopted perspective, this category extends beyond classical definitions of military resources and evolves toward a broader understanding of the state’s capacity to absorb external support.

The proposed operationalization of this research object should encompass an analysis of six key dimensions of capital: human, political, financial, social, infrastructural, ideological (axiological), and military. The overarching cognitive objective of these activities would therefore be to reduce uncertainty regarding the anticipated reactions of diaspora communities to potential crisis situations that might affect Poland. Our aim is for the data collected in the course of the research to enable the development of reliable simulation models capable of predicting diaspora behavior under conditions of a real threat to the state’s sovereignty.

Subject and Spatial Scope: Triangulation of Perspectives

The requirement for comprehensiveness in the proposed analyses leads us to adopt a multidimensional research perspective. The structure of the research field in the proposed study is based on the triangulation of three dimensions: diachronic, comparative, and empirical. We maintain that a reliable assessment of contemporary defense potential must be grounded both in institutional tradition and in the current geopolitical context.

Within the diachronic dimension, we propose conducting archival inquiries and analyses of the effectiveness of historical Polish diaspora structures. Research in this area should include an examination of the mechanisms developed by key independence-oriented organizations, including the Komitet Narodowy Polski (Polish National Committee)[23] and the Błękitna Armia (Blue Army).[24] The purpose of this retrospective analysis should be to identify proven procedures and patterns of mobilization that could be implemented within the contemporary security architecture.

As an essential point of reference, we also identify a comparative perspective based on a case study analysis of the Ukrainian diaspora in Canada. This choice is justified by the unique character of this community’s experience which, in the face of the war waged by Russia against Ukraine, has shifted into a state of de facto wartime mobilization, becoming an operational support base for the state engaged in combat. In this context, Canada – one of the most important political centers of Ukrainian emigration – constitutes a natural research laboratory. The planned field research, to be conducted in provinces with the highest concentration of the Ukrainian population, namely Alberta, Manitoba, and Ontario,[25] is therefore intended to identify empirically verified “best practices” in the areas of aid logistics and political lobbying that could be adapted to the Polish security system.

However, the primary research emphasis should be placed on the empirical dimension, that is, on diagnosing the current state of affairs. The selection of the research sample (countries) should be based primarily on the criterion of demographic dominance (the largest concentrations of the Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the borders of the Republic of Poland) and the criterion of the strategic utility of the host state (membership in NATO or the European Union, or broader geopolitical significance). Consequently, we propose conducting research in seven countries that together account for more than 70 percent of the estimated global Polish diaspora population while simultaneously performing key functions within the global security architecture: (1) United States – the largest concentration of the Polish diaspora worldwide and Poland’s strategic ally within NATO. (2) Germany, United Kingdom, and France – the principal destinations of Polish emigration in Western Europe, characterized by high political and military potential. (3) Brazil – the largest Polish diaspora in Latin America. (4) Canada – a sizable and well-organized Polish diaspora in a state that is a key transatlantic ally. (5) Lithuania – a state of strategic location (the Suwałki Gap), inhabited by an autochthonous Polish community[26] that is crucial for Poland’s border security. The research area defined in this way makes it possible to examine defense potential in locations where it is both numerically largest and operationally most significant.

 

Why? – Justification for Research

The justification for the proposed research presented below demonstrates not only its significance but has also been formulated so as to constitute a ready-made set of arguments that can be directly employed in the preparation of the research project whose implementation we advocate. We therefore present a synthesized matrix of substantive and societal premises intended to serve as an operational argumentative tool for entities applying to funding institutions for financial support for research focused on the security of the Republic of Poland.

A Community of Experiences and Defense Traditions

Polish diaspora communities and Poles residing in various countries, particularly during periods of existential threat to the state’s survival, possess well-documented experience in defending national interests. Historical precedents – Including the activities of such formations and organizations as the Armia Polska we Francji (Blue Army), the Związek Sokołów Polskich w Ameryce (Polish Falcons of America),[27] the Związek Narodowy Polski (Polish National Union),[28] and the Związek Harcerstwa Polskiego (The Polish Scouting and Guiding Association)[29] operating in exile – demonstrate the existence of a durable mobilization ethos among the Polish diaspora and Poles living outside the borders of the Republic of Poland. The proposed research is intended not only to provide a historical reconstruction of these “best practices,” but above all to assess how these proven patterns may be updated and continued under contemporary geopolitical conditions, thereby offering support to the modern security system of the Republic of Poland.

Identification of Personnel and Competency Reserves

The diaspora constitutes a strategic yet largely unrecognized demographic reserve. A primary justification for conducting research in this problem area is the need to assess the human potential that, in times of crisis, could reinforce the defense structures of the Republic of Poland. This group – particularly in countries with large Polish communities, such as the United States, Germany, Brazil, United Kingdom, France, Canada, and Lithuania – includes both military reserves (individuals trained in the Polish Armed Forces or in NATO member states’ armed forces) and specialists with competencies critical to defense, including field medicine, logistics, engineering, information technology, and communications. Such research would make it possible to identify these resources and their competencies while simultaneously recognizing legal constraints, including those related to the consequences of holding citizenship other than Polish. This multidimensional assessment is necessary for the development of training programs within the Polish Armed Forces dedicated to Poles residing abroad, which, in a “pre-war” period, would enable the rapid filling of competency gaps and the preparation of personnel ready to provide immediate support to the country.

Moral and Diplomatic Support

The Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the borders of the Republic of Poland constitute a significant, though often “dormant,” political and moral resource. A comparative analysis, referring to the role of the Ukrainian diaspora during the war with the Russian aggressor, clearly demonstrates how strong ties with the homeland can translate into tangible international support.[30] The objective of the proposed research is therefore to determine how Poland may operationally leverage this potential to mobilize public opinion from the bottom up in host countries.

Lobbying in Support of the Defense of the Republic of Poland

As an influential community in key decision-making countries – including the United States, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Brazil, and Canada – the Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the borders of the Republic of Poland possess the potential to conduct active lobbying in support of Poland’s security. Research in this area is necessary to identify the actual strength and forms of the diaspora’s influence on the foreign policy of host states and on international organizations. The results of such analyses would serve to formulate recommendations on how to effectively engage diaspora structures in shaping political and defense decisions favorable to Poland in the capitals of its allies.

Organizational and Logistical Capacities

The extensive network of Polish diaspora organizations, foundations, and associations constitutes an existing infrastructure that can be activated for assistance and support activities. These entities possess the capacity to serve as coordinators of fundraising efforts, material logistics, transportation, and evacuation. A key component of the proposed research would be to verify the potential for cooperation between these structures and international organizations such as the International Committee of the Red Cross and agencies of the United Nations, which would significantly increase the effectiveness of diaspora-led initiatives. The objective of the proposed research would therefore be to identify existing resources and to develop procedures for their rapid adaptation (profiling) to the needs of national defense and crisis management.

Financial Support under Wartime Conditions

The Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the borders of the Republic of Poland, particularly those living in countries with developed economies, constitute a significant source of capital that could supplement the defense budget of the Republic of Poland. The proposed research would aim to assess not only their declared “generosity” and willingness to provide humanitarian assistance, but also their readiness to finance strictly military activities, including investments in the Polish defense industry, military infrastructure, and border protection systems. Understanding the financial structure and motivations of potential donors is essential for developing secure mechanisms for the transfer of funds that comply with local legal regulations (e.g., war bonds or dedicated funds[31]) in the event of a potential conflict.

Civil Defense Organization and Refugee Support Infrastructure

In the event of an escalation of armed conflict on the territory of the Republic of Poland, the diaspora may assume responsibility for organizing civil defense and providing care for refugees in host countries. The proposed research would enable an assessment of the adaptive capacities of diaspora-based facilities (private homes, parish centers, Polish community centers) as well as available material resources (medicines, food, clothing). From this perspective, the objective is to develop guidelines for both the relocation and evacuation of Poles from high-risk areas, as well as models of cooperation with the governments of host states. Optimizing the use of these support networks is intended to protect the largest possible number of civilians from the consequences of aggression.

Contemporary Technologies and Cybersecurity

The diaspora’s access to advanced technologies and communication tools creates new opportunities to support national defense, particularly in the domains of cybersecurity and information warfare. An important research objective would be to determine how these resources – operated from territories not directly affected by armed conflict – could support the systems of the Republic of Poland. The findings of such research would help assess the rationale for organizing dedicated training programs (e.g., for IT specialists) in peacetime, aimed at increasing the usefulness of diaspora-based experts to the state in the event of war.

The Role of Diaspora Media and Countering Disinformation

The Polish diaspora, with its own communication channels (online portals, publications, and social media), can play a key role in the global circulation of information. The proposed research would aim to assess the potential of these media in two dimensions: conducting information campaigns that mobilize international support and countering hostile disinformation by disseminating reliable accounts of the situation in Poland. The outcome of this research would be the development of a strategy for strengthening and expanding Polish media abroad as an integral component of Strategic Communication (StratCom),[32] enabling them, under wartime conditions, to function as information platforms resilient to censorship and attacks.

 

How? – Research Methodology

The specific nature of the research problem we propose – addressing attitudes, declarations, and latent potential – necessitates the application of a methodological triangulation strategy. In the planned research process, we move away from a single-method approach in favor of a mixed-methods research paradigm[33] that integrates quantitative methods (measuring the scale of phenomena) with qualitative methods (understanding motivations). Such a design of the research framework makes it possible to operationalize the previously defined vernacular approach and to capture the multidimensional character of the defense potential of the Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the borders of the Republic of Poland.

Research Strategy and Data Collection Techniques

In our assessment, the architecture of such a complex research process requires the application of a sequential data collection model. For data collection, we propose the RDS method (Respondent-Driven Sampling). RDS is a method for sampling hard-to-reach statistical populations. Polish diasporas in selected countries can also be classified as such populations, as there are no complete, up-to-date, and verified registers of their members, and access to respondents often occurs through social and organizational networks. This method was first described by Douglas Heckathorn in 1997.[34] We propose that the research process be organized around three complementary analytical blocks.

Block I: Source inquiry and historical analysis (desk research)

As the foundation of the research effort, we identify the need to conduct an in-depth analysis of existing data. The first stage of the study should focus on reconstructing the “institutional memory” of the Polish diaspora. In this regard, we propose extensive archival research in foreign archives, including those located in the United States, United Kingdom, and France, in order to identify historical patterns of mobilization.[35] Furthermore, within this block, we envisage conducting a comparative analysis of the support systems developed by the Ukrainian diaspora in Canada during the ongoing war waged by Russia against Ukraine. Data collection for this analysis would be based on purposive sampling and would involve conducting individual in-depth (semi-structured) interviews with selected representatives of the Ukrainian diaspora who actively support Ukraine, continuing until data saturation is reached. The purpose of this step is to construct a reference model that would serve to assess the potential of Polish capabilities.

Block II: Qualitative exploration (vernacular perspective)

We place the primary cognitive emphasis of the proposed research on qualitative methods, which we consider essential for capturing the specificity of “vernacular security.” We propose conducting a series of in-depth interviews (IDIs – In-Depth Interviews) using purposive sampling of respondents. The target group should include leaders of diaspora organizations, diaspora journalists, clergy, and informal opinion leaders. This approach should be complemented by focus group interviews (FGIs – Focus Group Interviews). We assume that these techniques will make it possible to identify “cultural codes of security” and to understand the motivations that may prompt members of the diaspora to act in support of their country of origin.

Block III: Quantitative verification (scale of the phenomenon)

As an essential complement to the research strategy, we propose quantitative studies aimed at estimating the scale of the identified phenomena. We recommend conducting survey research using the CAWI (Computer-Assisted Web Interview) technique, because this method is particularly effective in studies of communities where communication and social activity have largely shifted to the online sphere – a characteristic of many contemporary Polish diaspora communities. At the same time, we are aware of the limitations of CAWI, such as more difficult access to older respondents and the risk of overrepresenting those who are more digitally active. Therefore, we allow for the possibility of supplementing CAWI with other techniques (e.g., CATI or CAPI) to increase the diversity of the sample. However, the decision to use a mixed-methods approach should be made on a case-by-case basis depending on the specific characteristics of the community in question. The sample size (N) for each country should be defined individually, based on an algorithm that takes into account: (1) data from the Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza (National Election Commission) regarding voter turnout in overseas districts (as an indicator of the active segment of the diaspora), (2) official census data from host countries, and (3) demographic estimates provided by Polish diplomatic missions. Such an approach will allow for the construction of a quota sample reflecting the actual structure and demographic potential of the communities under study. The application of this tool is intended to enable precise estimates of the size of personnel reserves (e.g., the number of individuals with military training), the level of declared willingness to provide financial support, and the reach of diaspora media. In our view, triangulating the data obtained in this block with the results of qualitative research will make it possible to develop a comprehensive and reliable model of the diaspora’s defense potential.

Analysis and Synthesis: from Data to Recommendations

The culmination of the proposed research should be an analytical and implementation phase. We assume that the empirical data collected cannot remain merely a set of statistics but must undergo multidimensional statistical analysis (including factor analysis and clustering) as well as in-depth interpretation in order to generate operationally useful knowledge. We therefore propose that this stage involve the integration of quantitative and qualitative findings, leading to the development of predictive models. Accordingly, the data analysis will employ both statistical methods appropriate for quantitative data and thematic analysis used in the analysis of qualitative data.

In our approach, the overarching objective of data synthesis is not merely to describe reality, but to develop predictive capacity. On the basis of the collected research material, multi-variant prognostic scenarios should be developed to anticipate diaspora behavior across diverse security situations – from hybrid threats and humanitarian crises to full-scale armed conflict. Such an approach will make it possible to determine how specific social groups within the Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the Republic of Poland (e.g., reservists versus opinion leaders) are likely to respond in times of crisis.

The final product of the project, directly resulting from the analysis conducted, should be a package of implementation-oriented recommendations addressed to key bodies of the state administration, including the Ministerstwo Spraw Zagranicznych (Ministry of Foreign Affairs), the Ministerstwo Obrony Narodowej (Ministry of National Defense), and the Biuro Bezpieczeństwa Narodowego (National Security Bureau). In our view, these recommendations should contain specific guidelines regarding:

• modeling training programs for the Polish diaspora and Poles residing abroad in peacetime (capacity building);
• establishing dedicated channels for secure crisis communication with the diaspora;
• developing logistical and financial procedures enabling the rapid absorption of external support by state structures.

The research logic we adopt – moving from data to recommendations – is intended to ensure that the project’s outcomes extend beyond purely theoretical academic considerations, providing political decision-makers with validated tools for strengthening state resilience based on national potential.

 

So what? – Expected Results and Implications

The question posed in the title of this section – “So what?” – is crucial from both an academic perspective (the advancement of research) and a utilitarian one (its impact on the security of the Republic of Poland). In our view, the implementation of the proposed research cannot be limited to contributing to the development of security theory alone. Its primary objective is to produce concrete effects in the practical functioning of the state. Below, we identify the fundamental implications arising from the implementation of the research as designed and explain why the current political moment makes such research indispensable.

The Imperative of Time: Research in the “Pre-war” Period

The answer to the question of why such research should be conducted now follows directly from the dynamics of the international security environment. We maintain that the Republic of Poland is currently operating in a specific period, defined in strategic discourse as a “pre-war” phase – a stage in which armed conflict is not certain but remains a realistic scenario. Conducting research on diaspora potential at the moment war breaks out would be both delayed and ineffective. The present moment provides a unique, and perhaps final, window of opportunity to carry out a comprehensive assessment, identify resources, and – most importantly – to test communication channels with the Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the borders of the Republic of Poland under peacetime conditions. Conducting research here and now would enable a transition from reactivity (seeking assistance chaotically when bombs are already falling) to proactivity (having established and verified mobilization procedures in place). Accordingly, the results of the proposed research should function as an insurance policy that the state secures in peacetime in order to activate it during a crisis.

A Paradigm Shift: from the “Cultural Diaspora” to a “Strategic Asset”

The most significant cognitive outcome of the proposed research should be a redefinition of how the diaspora is perceived within the framework of government administration. The existing approach, focused primarily on cultural, sentimental, and electoral dimensions, is insufficient in the era of hybrid threats. The effect of the proposed research should therefore be to provide empirically verified evidence that the Polish diaspora and Poles living abroad constitute an integral component of the state’s resilience system.[36] We expect that the conclusions drawn from this research will necessitate a doctrinal shift, redirecting cooperation with the diaspora away from ministries responsible for culture and heritage toward security-related institutions and diplomacy. The outcomes of the proposed research could legitimize treating diaspora structures not as beneficiaries of state assistance, but as partners in ensuring national security.

Operational Implications: “Doctrine” and “Strategy”

From a utilitarian perspective, the direct outcome of the proposed research should be the development of two documents: the “Doctrine of Defense Cooperation with the Polish Diaspora and Poles Residing Outside the Borders of the Republic of Poland” and the “Strategy of Defense Cooperation with the Polish Diaspora and Poles Residing Outside the Borders of the Republic of Poland.” The first document, normative and identity-based in character, should address the questions of why and under what principles diaspora-related issues – within the context of the security of the Republic of Poland – should be incorporated into the state’s security policy. This document would organize the values, interests, and anthropological and political assumptions that shape the state’s long-term approach to its own security under conditions of volatility and structural uncertainty in the international environment. The doctrine should explicitly define who the Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the borders of the Republic of Poland are from a security perspective, how the state conceptualizes this group (as a resource, a community, an actor, a partner, or a stakeholder), and where the boundaries of state responsibility lie. At the same time, it should establish the framework of acceptable risk and identify those categories of threats that the state considers unacceptable, while recognizing uncertainty as a permanent feature of the security environment rather than a condition that can be fully eliminated. In this sense, the doctrine would serve a stabilizing function by providing an interpretive framework for security policy, remaining relatively resistant to short-term political and cyclical changes.

The second document, instrumental and decision-oriented in character, should address the questions of how, when, with whom, and by what means – within the context of the security of the Republic of Poland – the diaspora may be incorporated as a stakeholder in the implementation of the state’s security policy. This document would prioritize a logic of action over doctrinal assumptions, adapting them to current strategic conditions, available resources, and identified threats, while focusing on risk management and the mitigation of the potential negative consequences of uncertainty. Unlike the doctrine, the strategy is time-bound and subject to periodic revision, serving as a tool that enables the state to adapt to a dynamically changing security environment. In this respect, the strategic document should also identify the key entities responsible for implementing specific areas of action, including the relevant government ministries, define the scope of their competencies, and establish mechanisms for interagency coordination, without entering into detailed operational solutions.

With the knowledge acquired regarding motivations (vernacular approach) and resources (quantitative approach), the Polish state would gain tools for the precise securitological segmentation and operationalization of communication and cooperation with the Polish diaspora and Poles residing outside the Republic of Poland. Instead of issuing general appeals for “solidarity,” it would become possible to direct targeted messages to specific groups (e.g., IT specialists in Silicon Valley, reservists in the United Kingdom, or opinion leaders in Chicago). Ultimately, the results of this research could lead to a situation in which the geographical borders of the Republic of Poland no longer define the limits of its defense potential. The conclusions drawn from the proposed research would enable the operationalization of the concept of a “Global Poland”[37] – a state capable, in the event of aggression, of immediately activating its human resources dispersed across the world, thereby constraining the actions of an adversary and securing the strategic depth necessary for survival.

 

Conclusions

In pursuing the scientific objective of this article, we have conceptualized the research problem and developed a coherent methodological framework necessary for undertaking systematic studies on the role of the diaspora within the security system of the Republic of Poland. In the course of the theoretical analysis presented, we have accomplished the following cognitive tasks.

First, we defined and operationalized the conceptual apparatus by introducing into the analysis of national security the categories of the “vernacular approach” and “social resilience” in a diasporic context. This made it possible to precisely delineate the object of research, understood as an aggregate of seven dimensions of defense capital (human, political, financial, social, infrastructural, ideological, and military).

Second, we justified the strategic necessity of undertaking empirical research in the current “pre-war” period (from Poland’s perspective). Through an analysis of the geopolitical context and the existing gap in the literature, we demonstrated the theoretical validity of moving beyond the traditional paradigm of a “sentimental diaspora” toward a complementary framework that treats the diaspora as an integral component of the state’s defense system.

Third, we designed an original methodology for the proposed research process, based on a triangulation strategy (combining historical, qualitative, and quantitative research) and a comparative approach (drawing on Ukrainian experiences).

Fourth, in the course of the analysis, we confirmed the heuristic adequacy of the adopted reasoning model, structured around a sequence of four guiding questions (what? – the object; why? – the justification; how? – the methodology; so what? – the implications). The application of this structure ensured the logical coherence of the argument and enabled the effective transformation of the general research concept into a comprehensive, implementation-ready grant project.

Accordingly, the present study constitutes a ready-made substantive and argumentative matrix. Its direct outcome is the provision of decision-makers and research funding institutions with a complete justification and operational plan for studies whose implementation is of key importance for reducing uncertainty within the security system of the Republic of Poland.

 

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[35] The term “historical patterns of mobilization” functions as a research metaphor describing a set of recurring organizational schemes that, in the past, enabled the effective transformation of national identity into tangible defense resources. Historical examples of such mechanisms include the organization of recruitment for the Błękitna Armia (Blue Army) and fundraising systems for the Fundusz Obrony Narodowej (National Defense Fund). The purpose of this analysis is to identify these proven patterns in order to adapt them to contemporary security challenges.

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[37] The term “Global Poland” does not refer to imperial ambitions or territorial expansion, but rather to a modern, network-based concept of the state in which security capabilities and resources are not confined solely to geographical borders. Within this framework, state potential is co-created by transnational networks of citizens, communities of origin, and functional partners connected by shared interests and frameworks of identification that can be operationalized within security policy. Our inspiration for this approach has been drawn, among others, from the following studies: M. Castells, The Rise of the Network Society. The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture, Wiley-Blackwell 2010; B. Buzan, O. Wæver, Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security. of Cambridge Studies in International Relations, Cambridge University Press 2009; S. Sassen, Territory, Authority, Rights: From Medieval to Global Assemblages, Princeton University Press 2006; Y. Shain, The Frontier of Loyalty: Political Exiles in the Age of the Nation-State, University of Michigan Press 2005; Y. Shain, Marketing the American Creed Abroad: Diasporas in the U.S. and Their Homelands, Cambridge University Press 1999.